This year would break all the crystal balls in admissions. That much seemed certain months ago. After all, the statistical models that deans use to predict enrollment outcomes rely on historical data, but no moment in recent history had looked so hazy or so dire.
Amy B. Abrams pondered this last summer when she started her new job as the dean of admission and financial aid at Sarah Lawrence College. In her first year as a top enrollment official, she had to recruit students to one of the most expensive institutions during a recession. This task made sleep iffy, so Ms. Abrams kept a notepad by her bed. Often she woke at 3 a.m. and jotted down ideas â?? anything that might help her enroll enough qualified freshmen this fall.