Ecologists have long wondered how to tell when a population of animals is about to slide toward extinction. A new study provides a statistical alarm that does just that. “The paper is an important test of early-warning signals,” says ecologist Stephen Carpenter of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who was not involved in the work. The result was based on a simple laboratory experiment, but if the technique works in the wild, it could help land managers know when they need to step up their conservation efforts.
Office of Strategic Communication