Clipsheet

“The court’s upcoming decisions on abortion, union rights and election laws have helped make this a blockbuster election,” says Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin political scientist. Another matter at stake could be the shape of the state’s congressional delegation, which is currently filled by six Republicans and two Democrats. If Crawford wins, a round of redistricting for the congressional map could follow the one already implemented for state legislative seats.

The level of intensity in the state feels about like a presidential election, said Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“It’s now become kind of a national referendum, or at least a way to measure the temperature of the electorate a couple of months into the Trump administration. The fact that the court is up for grabs ideologically and is weighing in on these important issues and money is so easily spread into these campaigns has really been the kind of magic stew that has put these elections on the map for everyone.”

Allison Prasch, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who specialises in US political rhetoric, said this race was a strategy test for both sides.

“We know that Wisconsin, up to the very end of the presidential cycle, was very close,” she said, noting that some cities such as Milwaukee and Madison unexpectedly swung towards Trump and helped deliver him the state’s electoral college votes. “What happens in Wisconsin [now] is going to tell us a lot about what’s going to happen, not just in 2026 but in 2028.”

Emeritus Professor of Public Affairs and Applied Economics at University of Wisconsin Madison, Andrew Reschovsky, said low income students, students with disabilities and rural school districts can impact how much each student costs, when calculating state aid allocated per pupil. He added that the formula used to determine state aid amounts in Wisconsin does not take these factors into account.

“Those sort of factors are not part of our what are called general aid formula in Wisconsin. In most other states, they are integral to the main funding formula,” said Reschovsky.

“It’s really the first major election since Trump and Republicans took office in January,” said Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center.

“It’s become kind of a referendum on the Trump administration, and what Elon Musk is doing as part of that, and Musk has amplified that by getting involved in Wisconsin,” explained Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “If there was any doubt about whether this election had a connection to national politics, Trump and Musk have made that connection for voters.”

However, the same court declined a request to redraw boundaries for the Wisconsin congressional map. Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said he believes the issue is being “overblown” in this year’s race.

“I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t say that it’s likely,” Burden said of congressional redistricting. “And it’s not the most important thing determining what happens in those midterm elections.”