Category: Experts Guide

Quoted: Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the district is not yet a toss-up, but it’s now within the grasp of Democrats, a possibility that “would not have been the case five or 10 years ago.”

“It’s been zooming towards the Democrats very quickly in the last decade,” Burden said.

Early voting started this weekend in Wisconsin for its April 4th Supreme Court race. The outcome of the election will determine whether the court has a liberal or conservative majority, with the justices expected to rule on several key issues such as abortion and voting rights. University of California Law professor Michele Goodwin and the Director of Elections Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Barry Burden, joined American Voices to discuss.

State law doesn’t appear to require a special election, however, says Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“Statute 17.19 states that the governor gets to appoint replacements whenever there is a vacancy [in an elected office] and the replacements serve until an election is held,” Burden says. “That could be the regular election at the end of the term or until a special election is held.”

Quoted: Whether the court takes that step almost surely depends on who wins next month’s election. A victory by former Justice Dan Kelly would preserve the 4-3 conservative majority. A win by Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz would give liberals control of the court for the first time since 2008.

If the latter happens, it would open the door to a redistricting case, said Rob Yablon, a University of Wisconsin-Madison law professor and redistricting expert.

“The court likely would have that opportunity,” Yablon said. “I think there are litigants who would almost certainly try to bring a case.”

Quoted: Referendums are increasingly being used by both political parties, particularly with non-partisan spring elections, which don’t usually generate great voter turnout, said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“These elections just don’t generate the same level of media coverage or public discussion so these gimmicks are one way to get the attention of the voter,” Burden said. “The effect on overall turnout probably won’t be great, but in Wisconsin, most people assume elections are going to be close, so even a change in the balance of things by a percentage point or two could tip the race and tip the balance of the Supreme Court itself.”

“We’re not going to set the record, we’re gonna blow it out of the water,” said David Canon, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Canon said it was hard to say what WMC’s ad buy would mean for the race because there hasn’t been any public polling. “Although one thing that I think you can infer from that is that if they thought this was not a winnable race, they wouldn’t be putting more than $3 million into it,” Canon said.

Quoted: “The election is primarily an opportunity for liberals and a risk for conservatives,” said Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.