University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center director Barry Burden said for Crowley’s argument to take shape, the Wisconsin polling would need to be farther off than polling showed ahead of the Michigan race.
“El-Sayed was leading Stevens by 10 to 15 points in public polling. He won by one point. Crowley’s memo shows he is losing in a standard poll question by an even larger margin, so the polls need to be farther off in Wisconsin for him to be victorious,” Burden said. “Maybe the wilder fluctuations in the Wisconsin primary make it more possible for this kind of error to happen, but it would be substantial at more than 20 points.”